New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes

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New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes

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Publication Article, peer reviewed scientific
Title New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes
Author Jin, Hongxiao ; Jönsson, Anna Maria ; Olsson, Cecilia ; Lindström, Johan ; Jönsson, Per ; Eklundh, Lars
Date 2019
English abstract
Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (>50 degrees N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30dayyear(-1). The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47day degrees C-1 to spring warming, and 0.18daycm(-1) to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66day degrees C-1 by winter warming and 0.56day degrees C-1 by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01690-5 (link to publisher's fulltext.)
Link https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-019-01690-5 .Icon
Publisher Springer
Host/Issue International Journal of Biometeorology;6
Volume 63
ISSN 0020-7128
Language eng (iso)
Subject Plant phenology index (PPI)
Spring phenology trend
Climate sensitivity
Northern European latitudes
Remote sensing
Sciences
Research Subject Categories::NATURAL SCIENCES
Handle http://hdl.handle.net/2043/30114 Permalink to this page
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